Domestic spot alumina transaction prices continue to rise! [SMM Morning Comment Oct 30]

Futures market: The overnight the most-traded alumina 2501 contract opened at 5,010 yuan/mt, with a high of 5,037 yuan/mt, a low of 4,955 yuan/mt, and closed at 4,991 yuan/mt, up 16 yuan/mt, an increase of 0.33%. Open interest was 237,000 lots, down 31 lots.

Spot alumina market: Yesterday, 10,000 mt of spot alumina was traded in north China, with transaction prices ranging from 5,120 to 5,220 yuan/mt.

Overseas market: On October 29, FOB Western Australia alumina prices were $693/mt, with the USD/CNY exchange rate around 7.15. This price translates to approximately 5,891 yuan/mt at major ports in China, which is 941 yuan/mt higher than domestic alumina prices, keeping the spot imports window closed.

Summary: Demand side, domestic aluminum production maintains stable and positive demand for alumina, with some enterprises having stockpiling needs. Overseas alumina supply has a gap, with prices surging, driving domestic spot alumina prices to continue rising. Some enterprises are turning to domestic sources for alumina supply, opening the export window, and alumina exports may increase. Supply side, ore constraints on alumina capacity expansion persist, heavy pollution weather alerts are frequently issued, and alumina refineries occasionally suspend calcination and undergo maintenance. New alumina capacity additions have limited short-term supply increments. Fundamentals side, there is a small gap in domestic spot alumina supply, and upward momentum for prices remains.